UniMORE researcher receives Early Career Investigator Award at COMPSTAT 2026
Dr Fabio Demaria, a research fellow in Economic Statistics at the Department of Communication
and Economics of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia (UniMORE), has received the Early
Career Investigator (ECI) Award at the 27th International Conference on Computational
Statistics (COMPSTAT 2026), held at the Athens University Law School.
The award, which recognises the best contribution presented by a researcher within eight years of
obtaining their PhD, honours the scientific paper “Estimation methods and empirics of hidden
Markov switching models with skew-normal innovations”, authored by Dr Fabio Demaria
together with his research supervisor, Professor Maddalena Cavicchioli, and Professor Andrea
Nigri. The award carries a prize of €500.
The research addresses an important question in the analysis of phenomena that evolve over time:
how to identify changes in the conditions of a system, distinguishing normal periods from
those characterised by exceptional events, without knowing in advance when each phase begins
or ends. The authors develop a Hidden Markov Switching model in which each phase can exhibit
its own behaviour, including asymmetric distributions. They devise a procedure for estimating the
model's parameters and establish its theoretical properties. The model was evaluated using
simulated data and applied to long historical mortality time series from several countries. The
results show how this approach can help distinguish periods of normal mortality from phases
of crisis. The study also identifies the conditions under which the model's estimates are reliable
and the circumstances in which the available data do not allow the two phases to be clearly
distinguished.
The award recognises a research trajectory that began during doctoral studies and has
since developed within the fields of economic statistics and computational methods for
data analysis.
“I am delighted that Fabio has received this prestigious recognition. I had the pleasure of
supervising him during his Master's studies and subsequently throughout his PhD, during which I
came to appreciate his outstanding abilities and considerable scientific potential,” comments
Professor Maddalena Cavicchioli of UniMORE. “With the hope that we will be able to continue
our collaboration in such stimulating and promising research areas as economic statistics and the
development of computational algorithms for complex data analysis, I extend my warmest
congratulations to Fabio and my very best wishes for a successful academic career.”
“I am proud to receive this international recognition, which I share with my colleagues and co-
authors, Maddalena Cavicchioli and Andrea Nigri,” says Dr Fabio Demaria. “This award marks the
culmination of a research journey that began during my PhD at UniMORE and encourages me to
continue developing statistical methods capable of interpreting complex real-world phenomena.”
Fabio Demaria has been a research fellow in Economic Statistics at UniMORE's Department of
Communication and Economics since 2024, as part of a PRIN PNRR research project focusing on
the circular economy. He also holds adjunct teaching positions in Data Analysis for Management at
the Marco Biagi Department of Economics and in Statistical Models at the Department of
Communication and Economics. He obtained his PhD in Labour, Development and Innovation in
2024 under the supervision of Professor Maddalena Cavicchioli and undertook a research
placement as a visiting scholar at Cleveland State University. His research interests include
statistical learning, decision-tree-based methods and Markov-switching models, with applications
to sustainability, supply chains and organisational well-being.
Categorie: International - english, Notizie_eng
Articolo pubblicato da: Ufficio Stampa Unimore - ufficiostampa@unimore.it il 29/10/2026